UNDERSTANDING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate change has the potential to impact all forms of current day life, however it will also have a huge and, until now, unquantified impact upon historic, iconic and culturally significant sites across the UK. That is why GSD were contracted to partner with sustainability advisors to develop what has been called a “game changer” map, estimating the relative risks to countryside locations, monuments, coastlines and historical sites across the Wales, Northern Island and England.
To provide this information at a local scale, a hex grid was created to enable zonal statistics on climate related data to be drawn and identify locally specific risks that would enable the client to take specific action to protect sites. This grid was derived using the specific site locations that struck a balance between conflating data at appropriate scales and providing localised levels of detail. Finally, to fully visualise the results and enable optimal engagement for the client with stakeholders and partners, the map was developed into an online web mapping tool.
This dataset was then populated with existing data on climate change related events, encompassing as many impacts as possible, ranging from heat, humidity, flood risk, slope stability, coastal erosion, soil heave and storm frequency. Analysis was then conducted into how these events would change into the future, providing data on the 2020 and future (2060) risks to individual sites. This was calculated using a worst-case model of no intervention on current emission rates.
The important findings of this analysis has shown that;
71% of the sites could face medium-high risks from climate change related impacts by 2060. A rise from 30% in 2020.
Sites in the highest risk category will more than double, from 1453 in 2020, to 3861 in 2060.
Heat and Humidity will be the largest threats, particularly in the South East, whilst storm damage, landslides and flooding will also become more common and widespread.
One third of sites will expect to see >15 days a year with temperatures over 30 degrees Celsius.
The results of this project provided the client with a “flagging tool”, which aids their observations of sites and allows early intervention to mitigate any damage that may be caused by the changing climatic conditions. This further allows landowners and councils to come together with a joined-up approach to dealing with arising problems, such as slowing water runoff, peat bog or river restoration and natural shade construction.
Since the initial project GSD have worked with the client to be able to provide data for different climate related threats for other organisations working with sites across the UK. Having parts of the processing already automated meant that we could provide the new datasets quickly and efficiently.
The mapping tool can be found at